CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-05-03T02:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-05-03T02:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30409/-1
CME Note: A faint CME with narrow brighter front with filamentary structures (likely the bulk) and a wider fainter but slower front (likely the shock). The source is the X1.6 class flare (N26E05) from AR 3663 peaking at 2024-05-03T02:22Z and an eruption with a faint narrow ejecta seen in AIA 193 directed mostly towards the NE and a faint dimming mostly NE of the active region and post-eruptive arcades seen in AIA 193. Arrival signature: gradual CME arrival signature (likely a flank impact/glancing blow) which on 2024-05-06 is followed by the onset of a high speed stream. There is no shock but a steady growth in magnetic field to 16nT on 2024-05-06, accompanied by rotation of all 3 magnetic field components, with a prolonged bout of negative Bz (below 10 nT) on the evening of 2024-05-05. The ICME signature also includes an initial build up of ion density and temperature, followed by drops in both parameters.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-05T11:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-05T12:34Z (-3.96h, +5.26h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:
Time of Launch: 2024/05/03 02:40Z Plane of Sky 1: 09:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NNE Direction Plane of Sky 2: 14:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SSW Direction POS Difference: 4:40 POS Midpoint: 11:40Z TOL/Midpoint Difference: 9:00 Numeric View/Impact Type: 2 POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.43 Travel Time: ~6.43 * 9:00 = 57:54 Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-05-05T12:34Z Error Parameters: - POS Difference: 1 Hour - Travel Time Square Root: 50% Notes: Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5 Forecast Creation Time: 2024/05/03 12:45ZLead Time: 43.90 hour(s)
Difference: -1.07 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-05-03T15:36Z
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